Adelaide Property Market Forecast 2026 and 2027

By Parm Singh, Principal and Registered Land Agent (RLA 286049), Licensed Auctioneer·Figures last checked 1 October 2026

Adelaide house prices are on track to finish 2026 close to where they started, and most forecasters expect further falls into 2027. Values peaked in May and have fallen for four months, leaving them just 1.8% up for the year at the end of September. The Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September; ANZ expects a 6.4% fall in 2027, and CommBank about 8% from the peak.

What is the Adelaide property market forecast for 2026?

Close to flat for the year. Cotality has Adelaide dwelling values 1.8% higher at the end of September than at the start of January, after four monthly falls, including 1.3% in September alone. If values keep falling at September’s pace until December, the year ends about 2% lower. Westpac’s forecast of a 2% to 3% rise for 2026, published on 28 September, came before the September figures and the latest rate rise.

At the start of the year the outlook was far stronger. In February ANZ expected Adelaide to rise 6.1% in 2026. Since then the Reserve Bank has lifted the cash rate four times, in February, March, May and September, taking it from 3.60% to 4.60%, and the forecasts have been cut back to match.

What is the forecast for 2027?

Forecasters are split, and the split is about interest rates. The banks that have updated since the rate rises expect Adelaide to fall: ANZ forecasts a 6.4% drop in 2027, the sharpest among the smaller capitals, and CommBank expects Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth to end up about 8% below their peaks. Domain’s June forecast has house prices up 4% to 8% in the year to June 2027, but it assumed rates had peaked at 4.35%, and the Reserve Bank has since raised them again.

Nationally, Westpac expects prices to recover by about 3% in 2027 and CommBank by about 2%, with CommBank’s figure resting on rate cuts in May and August 2027. If the cash rate instead stays at 4.60% through 2027, CommBank estimates national prices would be broadly flat.

Where the Adelaide market stands now

Adelaide dwelling values fell 1.3% in September and 2.7% over the three months to September, according to Cotality. Over twelve months they are still up 6.5%, and 59% over five years. The median dwelling value is $928,560: $990,531 for a house and $674,188 for a unit. Values peaked in May 2026 and are 2.9% below that peak.

Adelaide is now falling at about the national pace. Nationally, Cotality has values 5.2% below their March peak, with falls in 97% of capital city suburbs over the past three months, and capital city homes taking a median of 39 days to sell, against 23 a year ago. The Reserve Bank raised the cash rate to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth rise this year and the highest level in fifteen years, and Cotality notes the possibility of another rise in November.

What the Valuer-General’s sales show in our suburbs

The Valuer-General’s record of settled sales runs a quarter behind, so it shows the market at its peak rather than the turn. In April to June 2026, across the 50 Adelaide suburbs in our house price report, the sales-weighted median house price was $946,672, +15% on a year earlier. The northern suburbs were among the strongest:

Cotality’s September figures tell the same story: values in the Gawler–Two Wells region were 9.6% higher than a year earlier, Tea Tree Gully 9.0% and Salisbury 8.2%, all among the ten strongest parts of Adelaide. The July to September sales, due from the Valuer-General in mid-October, will be the first to show the turn.

What about rents in 2026 and 2027?

Rents are still rising, because Adelaide has the tightest rental market of any capital. Cotality puts Adelaide’s vacancy rate at 1.4%, with house rents 6.3% higher than a year ago and unit rents 6.1% higher. New leases lodged with the SA Government show the same trend: the median rent on a new bond in metropolitan Adelaide was $580 a week in April to June 2026, +4% on a year earlier and +57% on five years earlier.

In our own leasing, the median home was leased in 6 days in the twelve months to September 2026. Nationally, Cotality reports rental growth slowing and rental affordability at its worst on record, which may limit how much further rents can rise. Suburb-by-suburb figures are in our rent price report.

Our read on 2026 and 2027

2026 is mostly decided. With values 1.8% up at the end of September and still falling, the year is likely to finish close to flat, or slightly lower.

2027 turns on interest rates. If the cash rate stays at 4.60% or rises again, we expect Adelaide values to keep easing into 2027, in the range the banks are forecasting. If cuts arrive by mid-2027, as CommBank expects, the fall should be shallower and the recovery earlier.

What we do not see is a collapse. Adelaide’s vacancy rate is the lowest in the country, Cotality notes that new housing is still not being built fast enough to meet demand, and the northern suburbs we work in were still showing annual growth of 8% to 10% in September. Cotality reaches a similar view: a gradual drift lower rather than a material downturn. For landlords, rents look set to keep rising, though more slowly than over the past five years. This is our opinion, formed from the figures above; it is not financial advice.

What it means for sellers, buyers and landlords

Sellers. Price to the market as it is now, not the May peak. Buyers have more choice and less urgency than in the first half of the year, and capital city homes now take a median of 39 days to sell, up from 23 a year ago. An appraisal from recent comparable sales is the starting point; ours is free.

Buyers. More choice and more room to negotiate, but borrowing costs may rise again before they fall. Ask your broker how a further rate rise would change what you can borrow before you bid.

Landlords and investors. Rents are still rising and vacancies are rare, and gross yields have edged up as values ease: Cotality puts Adelaide at 3.6%. Holding costs are higher too, and Cotality reports that the less favourable negative gearing and capital gains tax settings in May’s federal budget have already cut investor demand. A free rental appraisal tells you what your property would rent for, and the online rent estimate gives an instant suburb median.

Questions

Will Adelaide house prices go down in 2026?

They already have, month by month: values have fallen every month since peaking in May, by 1.3% in September alone. At the end of September they were still 1.8% higher than at the start of the year, so 2026 is likely to finish close to flat. If September’s pace continued to December, the year would end about 2% lower.

Will Adelaide house prices go down in 2027?

The banks that have updated since this year’s rate rises think so. ANZ forecasts a 6.4% fall in 2027, and CommBank a fall of about 8% from the May 2026 peak. Domain’s June forecast is more positive, at 4% to 8% growth for houses in the year to June 2027, but it assumed rates had already peaked at 4.35%, and they have since risen to 4.60%.

What is the median house price in Adelaide?

$990,531 for a house and $928,560 across all dwellings at the end of September 2026, according to Cotality. The Valuer-General’s settled sales put the sales-weighted median across the 50 suburbs in our house price report at $946,672 in April to June 2026.

Are Adelaide rents still going up?

Yes. Cotality has Adelaide house rents 6.3% higher than a year ago and units 6.1% higher, with a vacancy rate of 1.4%, the lowest of any capital. The median rent on new leases lodged with the SA Government was $580 a week in April to June 2026.

When will this forecast be updated?

Every quarter, when the Valuer-General and the SA Housing Trust publish new figures, and sooner if the Reserve Bank moves rates. The date at the top of the page is the date the figures were last checked.