In March 2023 I told API Magazine that suburbs near the Osborne submarine yard would see more demand for housing, but not straight away. Three and a half years on, house prices in the five suburbs I named are up 40% to 44%, while Adelaide as a whole is up 45%. The shipyard has not added anything extra yet. With about 1,100 of a planned 10,000 workers on site, the real test is still ahead.
What did I say in 2023?
A week after the submarine plan was announced, Craig Francis of Australian Property Investor Magazine asked agents near each of the new submarine bases what it would mean for housing. His article ran on 21 March 2023. I named Port Adelaide, West Lakes, Kilburn, Gepps Cross and Mawson Lakes as suburbs likely to see more demand as workers and their families moved closer to the yard.
I also said three things that matter now. The extra demand would come, “but not immediately”. The rental market, already tight with a vacancy rate of 0.4% in north-western Adelaide, could get tighter still and push rents higher. And new building in Adelaide’s north could add enough supply to soften the effect.
What has happened at Osborne since?
The project has moved from announcement to approval to construction, but the workforce that would change local housing demand is only starting to arrive.
| When | What happened |
|---|---|
| March 2023 | Australia announces how it will acquire nuclear-powered submarines, with the build at Osborne. At the time, about $2 billion over four years was set aside for Osborne’s facilities. (source) |
| February to March 2025 | The environmental impact statement for the construction yard is released for public consultation. (source) |
| February 2026 | The federal government commits a $3.9 billion first instalment, including about $2 billion of enabling works and more than $500 million for a Skills and Training Academy. The Eurimbla Way link road into the site opens. (source) |
| 19 February 2026 | The yard receives its federal environmental approval. (source) |
| August 2026 | Early works start on $100 million of Lefevre Peninsula road upgrades at Victoria Road, Pelican Point Road and Veitch Road. Major construction is due to start in early 2027. (source) |
| September 2026 | Construction of the yard is under way, starting with a large warehouse building, and an overpass into the site is finished. About 1,100 people are working on the yard and related projects. (source) |
| 2028 | The Skills and Training Academy takes its first students, with room for up to 1,000 a year. (source) |
| By the end of the 2020s | Construction of the first SSN-AUKUS submarine is expected to start. The first Australian-built submarine is due in the early 2040s. (source) |
The scale is large. The yard will cover about 600,000 square metres of floor space, ten times the existing Osborne South development, across more than 50 buildings, with a fabrication hall 420 metres long. Australian Naval Infrastructure expects it to cost about $30 billion over the coming decades.
Have house prices near Osborne risen faster than the rest of Adelaide?
No. Between the year to March 2023 and the year to September 2026, the typical house price rose 40% to 44% in the five suburbs I named, and 34% to 47% on the Lefevre Peninsula, 40% across the peninsula as a whole. Metropolitan Adelaide rose 45%. The submarine suburbs did well, but no better than everywhere else.
| Suburb | Typical house price, year to March 2023 | Year to September 2026 | Change | Houses sold, latest year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The five suburbs named in 2023 | ||||
| Port Adelaide | $655,000 | $941,000 | +44% | 36 |
| West Lakes | $999,000 | $1,427,000 | +43% | 89 |
| Kilburn | $723,000 | $1,024,000 | +42% | 32 |
| Gepps Cross | $594,000 | $856,000 | +44%* | 5 |
| Mawson Lakes | $661,000 | $926,000 | +40% | 125 |
| Closest to the yard, on the Lefevre Peninsula | ||||
| Osborne | $585,000 | $855,000 | +46% | 38 |
| Taperoo | $586,000 | $845,000 | +44% | 33 |
| North Haven | $714,000 | $1,031,000 | +44% | 74 |
| Largs North | $698,000 | $935,000 | +34% | 43 |
| Largs Bay | $790,000 | $1,161,000 | +47% | 44 |
| Birkenhead | $659,000 | $892,000 | +35% | 33 |
| Peterhead | $614,000 | $863,000 | +41% | 17 |
| Lefevre Peninsula, together | $688,000 | $965,000 | +40% | 282 |
| For comparison | ||||
| Metropolitan Adelaide | $746,000 | $1,082,000 | +45% | 17,386 |
The typical house price is the Valuer-General’s four quarterly median house prices for each year, weighted by the number of sales in each quarter. Metropolitan Adelaide covers all 434 suburbs in the Valuer-General’s metropolitan data. *Gepps Cross had only 6 house sales in the earlier year and 5 in the latest, so treat its figure as a rough guide.
What happened to rents?
They rose sharply, as I expected, but again in step with Adelaide rather than ahead of it. The typical weekly rent on a new house lease rose 19% to 33% in the suburbs I named where there are enough leases to compare, and 29% across metropolitan Adelaide. The rental market has stayed tight: Cotality put Adelaide’s vacancy rate at 1.4% at the end of September 2026, the lowest of any capital city.
| Suburb | Typical weekly house rent, year to March 2023 | Year to June 2026 | Change | Gross yield now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The five suburbs named in 2023 | ||||
| Port Adelaide | $544 | $648 | +19% | 3.6% |
| West Lakes | $553 | $718 | +30% | 2.6% |
| Kilburn | $402 | $523 | +30% | 2.7% |
| Gepps Cross | n/a | n/a | Too few new leases | n/a |
| Mawson Lakes | $483 | $644 | +33% | 3.6% |
| Closest to the yard, on the Lefevre Peninsula | ||||
| Osborne | $477 | $613 | +28% | 3.7% |
| Taperoo | $409 | $562 | +37% | 3.5% |
| North Haven | $548 | $664 | +21% | 3.3% |
| Largs North | $511 | $668 | +31% | 3.7% |
| Largs Bay | $500 | $611 | +22% | 2.7% |
| Birkenhead | $485 | $572 | +18% | 3.3% |
| Peterhead | n/a | n/a | Too few new leases | n/a |
| Lefevre Peninsula, together | $486 | $618 | +27% | 3.3% |
| For comparison | ||||
| Metropolitan Adelaide | $473 | $609 | +29% | 2.9% |
Rents are the SA Housing Trust’s median weekly rents on new house bonds, weighted by the number of bonds in each quarter. Gross yield is the latest year’s typical rent over a year, divided by the latest year’s typical house price, before costs. Peterhead and Gepps Cross had too few new house leases to compare.
Why hasn’t the shipyard shown up in prices yet?
The workforce is still small. About 1,100 people are working on the yard now, against nearly 10,000 planned. Most of them are designers, project managers and construction workers, not the submarine builders who will follow.
Everything else rose too. From 2023 to 2025, interstate migration, a shortage of new housing and investors buying from interstate lifted prices across the whole city. Those forces were far bigger than anything happening at Osborne, and they lifted the submarine suburbs along with everyone else.
Workers can live anywhere within a commute. Demand from the yard is spread across the north-west and the north, not just the peninsula. That is why I named suburbs as far away as Mawson Lakes and Gepps Cross in 2023.
The market has turned. Adelaide values have fallen every month since May 2026 as interest rates rose, which our Adelaide market forecast covers in detail. Any shipyard effect will now arrive in a softer market.
What I got right, and what I would change
I was right that the demand would not be immediate, and right that rents would keep climbing. I would not repeat the suggestion that the submarine suburbs would outpace Adelaide in the short term. Over three and a half years they have matched the city, not beaten it.
The supply point has also played out. New estates in Adelaide’s north, such as Riverlea Park, have kept adding homes, which gives future yard workers more choice and takes pressure off the older suburbs nearer the yard. This section is my opinion, formed from the figures above; it is not financial advice.
What to watch from here
- 2027: major construction on the Lefevre Peninsula road upgrades, and the transport planning study for the peninsula.
- 2028: the Skills and Training Academy’s first students, up to 1,000 a year.
- Late 2020s: the start of submarine construction, when the production workforce of about 5,500 begins to build. This is when I expect any real effect on local housing.
- Every quarter: the Valuer-General’s prices and the SA Housing Trust’s rents. I will update this article as they are published.
What it means for landlords and investors
The clearest difference near the yard is yield. Across the Lefevre Peninsula the typical house earns a gross yield of about 3.3%, against 2.9% for Adelaide, because prices there are lower while rents are close to the city median. Port Adelaide, Mawson Lakes, Osborne and Largs North are all above 3.5%.
Against that, values across Adelaide have been easing since May, and the shipyard’s workforce will build up over years, not months. If you own a rental near Osborne, a free rental appraisal tells you what it would lease for today, and our property management page sets out what we charge to look after it.
Questions
Has the submarine project pushed up house prices in Port Adelaide?
Not by more than the rest of Adelaide so far. The typical house price in Port Adelaide rose 44% between the year to March 2023 and the year to September 2026, and metropolitan Adelaide rose 45% over the same period. The suburbs closest to the yard, on the Lefevre Peninsula, rose 40% together.
Which suburbs are closest to the Osborne submarine yard?
The yard is on the Lefevre Peninsula, about 19 kilometres north-west of the Adelaide CBD. The nearest suburbs are Osborne, Taperoo, North Haven, Largs North, Largs Bay, Birkenhead and Peterhead on the peninsula, with Port Adelaide and West Lakes to the south. Workers can also commute from further afield, which is why we also follow Kilburn, Gepps Cross and Mawson Lakes.
How many people will work at the Osborne submarine yard?
About 1,100 people were working on the yard and related projects in September 2026. The government expects nearly 10,000 jobs in South Australia: at least 4,000 to design and build the yard, and about 5,500 to build submarines at peak production.
When will submarines be built in Adelaide?
Construction of the first SSN-AUKUS submarine at Osborne is expected to start by the end of the 2020s, and the first Australian-built submarine is due in the early 2040s. The Skills and Training Academy on the site takes its first students in 2028.
Is it a good time to invest near Osborne?
That depends on your finances and your time frame, so speak to your own adviser. What the figures show is that gross rental yields near the yard are higher than the Adelaide average: about 3.3% across the Lefevre Peninsula against 2.9% for Adelaide. The shipyard’s workforce is also still growing. Against that, Adelaide values have been falling since May 2026 as interest rates rose.
Sources
- Submarine suburbs surface as property market hotspots, Australian Property Investor Magazine, Craig Francis, 21 March 2023: the original article, quoting Parm Singh.
- Nuclear-Powered Submarine Construction Yard Project, PlanSA: the state assessment, including the environmental impact statement released for consultation from 3 February to 17 March 2025.
- Billions in funding for South Australian submarine construction yard, Naval News, 17 February 2026: the $3.9 billion commitment, the Eurimbla Way link road, the Skills and Training Academy and the planned workforce.
- Strategic assessment: approval decision notice, Australian Submarine Agency, 19 February 2026: the federal environmental approval for the construction yard, running to 30 June 2076.
- Works underway on vital defence precinct upgrades, Australian and South Australian governments, 12 August 2026: the $100 million Lefevre Peninsula road upgrades and the transport planning study.
- Construction of SA’s $8.5bn nuclear submarine shipyard kicks off, InDaily, 7 September 2026: work under way, the current workforce and the submarine timeline.
- Home Value Index, October 2026, Cotality, results to 30 September 2026: Adelaide’s rental vacancy rate.
- Metropolitan median house sales, Office of the Valuer-General, South Australia, via Data SA (CC BY 4.0): every house price figure in this article.
- Private Rent Report, South Australian Housing Trust, from bond data held by Consumer and Business Services, via Data SA (CC BY 4.0): every rent figure in this article.
- Adelaide house prices by suburb and Adelaide rent prices by suburb, our quarterly reports from the same data.
Project dates and figures are as published on the dates shown, and they can change. This article is general information, not financial advice. Figures were checked on 12 November 2026.
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